bcs bowl predictions

That's didn't go so well, did it? As I feared, last week's bowl projections were valid for less than a day, because that night, Oregon lost to Arizona.

No way to predict that Dennis Dixon would have crumpled to the ground untouched, completely redrawing the bowl picture.


The projections included five assumptions, of which only Oregon's loss proved erroneous. (I had Oklahoma winning the Big 12, which can still happen.)

But before we get busy with revised projections, a not-so-quick thought on the BCS situation.

If you ever wonder why there's no playoff, one reason ― perhaps the biggest reason ― is that the commissioners of the Big Six conferences don't want to relinquish the control they current possess.

Here's one example: the decision to expand the at-large pool to include teams ranked in the top 18 of the final BCS standings (not just the top-14).

They didn't have to discuss it with network execs, or have it approved by some NCAA sub-committee for the executive management council/clearinghouse of administration and eligibility/postseason operations/inanity.

They needed to expand the pool, and they did it ― quick and simple.

Why give up that control?

Anyhow, the decision was absolutely necessary, because we're looking at the possibility of not having enough eligible teams in the top-14 to fill all the at-large slots (remember, only two teams per Big Six conference can play in the BCS).

So, here we are, two weeks left, a dozen possibilities ― one of which includes Ohio State crawling into the BCS title game (heaven help us!).

Frankly, now that Oregon's out, I'm not too excited by any of the possibilities. LSU-Kansas/Missouri/West Virginia? No thanks. And if LSU doesn' make it? Double-ugh.

This week, more assumptions:

* In the SEC: That LSU runs the table and remains No. 1 in the BCS.

* In the Big 12: That the Missouri wins the title and is No. 2 in the BCS. (I think Mizzou is better than Kansas; actually, I think Oklahoma is better than both if Sam Bradford's healthy).

* In the Big East: That West Virginia runs the table.

* In the Pac-10: That USC beats Arizona State, Oregon loses again (to UCLA or Oregon State) and ASU beats Arizona.

* In the ACC: That Boston College and VaTech meet in the conference championship.

* In the WAC: That neither Hawaii nor Boise State is eligible for the BCS.

OK, let's take another shot at this.

***Bowl Championship Series

BCS title game: LSU vs. Missouri

Rose Bowl: USC vs. Ohio State (Could have been much worse if Michigan had won the Big Ten.)

The Sugar Bowl would pick first to replace No. 1 LSU and select the league's runner up: Tennessee or Georgia.

The Fiesta Bowl would pick second to replace No. 2 Missouri and select 11-1 Kansas.

The Orange Bowl has first pick after the No. 1 and 2 replacements are chosen and would select 11-1 West Virginia to face the ACC champ (Boston College/Virginia Tech).

The Fiesta Bowl would pick next and select 10-2 Arizona State, which would be eligible even with a loss to USC, to face Kansas. (No empty seats for that one.)

The Sugar Bowl would pick last and select Virginia Tech if it's the ACC runner up or Illinois if VaTech wins the ACC.

***Pac-10 bowls

If a second team jumps into the BCS, the Pac-10 would have seven slots to fill but only five eligible teams if, as I expect, UCLA loses its last two and Arizona loses to ASU.

Can't imagine that bowl execs affiliated with the Pac-10 would be very happy.

Rose: USC

Fiesta/BCS at-large: Arizona State

Holiday: Oregon

Sun: Cal (The Sun can invoke a no-repeat rule since No. 4 Oregon State played there last season, but is Cal a better choice? Add the Sun to the list of unhappy Pac-10-affiliated bowls.)

Emerald: Oregon State (If the Sun goes with OSU, the Emerald would want Cal)

Las Vegas: vacant

Armed Forces: vacant.

[You can leave a response, or track
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

After losses last week by No. 1 LSU, No. 2 Kansas, and No. 6 Arizona State, Georgia (10-2) jumped from No. 7 to No. 4 in the BCS standings released Sunday.

By rule Georgia's No. 4 ranking, if it holds, guarantees the Bulldogs a spot in one of the BCS bowls.

Here is everything you need to know about the BCS and where Georgia could play as we head to the last week of the regular season. Note that the Bulldogs cannot play in the Sugar Bowl.

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP

When: Jan. 7, 2008, 8 p.m. (FOX)

Likely opponent: Ohio State (11-1), the Big Ten champion

How it happens: This is a long shot at best for Georgia. But if No. 1 Missouri loses to Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship and No. 2 West Virginia loses at home to Pittsburgh (4-7), then No. 3 Ohio State and No. 4 Georgia could move up into the big game.

ROSE BOWL

When: Jan. 1, 2008, 5:10 p.m. (ABC)

Likely opponent: Southern Cal (9-2) if the Trojans beat UCLA on Saturday

How it happens: Because the Rose loses one of its host teams (Ohio State) to the BCS championship game, it goes to the front of the line on Selection Sunday. After looking at the pool of at-large teams, it chooses Georgia (10-2), one of the hottest teams in college football.

ORANGE BOWL

When: Jan. 3, 2008, 8 p.m. (FOX)

Likely opponent: ACC champion (Virginia Tech or Boston College)

How it happens: The Rose bowl will get to pick first because it had to replace one of its host teams (Ohio State). If the Rose passes on Georgia to take Kansas (11-1) or Hawaii (12-0) or even Illinois (9-3), then the Orange is next in line and would be expected to take Georgia.

FIESTA BOWL

When: Jan. 2, 2008, 8 p.m. (FOX)

Likely opponent: Big 12 champion if it's Oklahoma.

How it happens: The Rose Bowl passes on Georgia to take Kansas, Missouri, Hawaii or Illinois. The Orange Bowl passes on the Bulldogs to take Arizona State or Kansas. The Fiesta Bowl has always liked SEC teams because their fans travel so well and they are very competitive. Also, if Missouri wins the Big 12 and goes to the BCS championship game, the Fiesta could look at Georgia as its replacement pick.

Permalink | Comments (97) | Post your comment |

Comments
By DaytonaDawg

November 25, 2007 5:55 PM | Link to this

Well I just hope we stay at least #4 after the confrence championship games, those carry a lot of weight, as well they should.

By Grant

November 25, 2007 5:57 PM | Link to this

Looking at the BCS standings, Virginia Tech and LSU are extremely close to the Dawgs, and they both play in conference title games. Unfortunately, even if WVU and Mizz lose on Saturday, I think either LSU or VT would pass the idle Dawgs with a victory…Let's hope for the Rose Bowl and for our 2009 schedule to somehow get a LOT easier!

By Jim

November 25, 2007 5:58 PM | Link to this

Just happy for the Bulldogs to be selected in one of the BCS Bowl games. Congratulations for all your hard work Bulldogs and thank you Coach Mark Richt for all that you've accomplished. Tennessee, get ready for some b*slapping by LSU next week. You guys got lucky the past two games…you won't be so lucky in Atlanta.

By ilovetech

November 25, 2007 5:59 PM | Link to this

man, georgia sure did whip our butts last night - georgia is a superior program and university to my beloved, but, yet inferior ga tech program and university

By Dr Morpheus

November 25, 2007 6:00 PM | Link to this

You meant Ohio State would play the Big Twelve champion in the Big One under your first scenario. LSU could pass Georgia if the Tigers demolish UT in the SEC championship game. Otherwise, the situation is still highly unpredictable.

By 1eyedJack

November 25, 2007 6:00 PM | Link to this

The first scenario would be manna and nirvana!!! I'll settle, if necessary, for the Rose Bowl. Just win baby! Can't wait for 2008 to start. Go DAWGS!!!

By Dr Morpheus

November 25, 2007 6:02 PM | Link to this

OK, I reread your comments and you had it straight. Comment withdrawn.

By John

November 25, 2007 6:05 PM | Link to this

This is all sweeter than Sugar….Isn't it 93,000 of my closest friends? What was that the "OlD" Ball Coach said about Georgia. Keep it up Stevie…….Have a bone on us!! I suspect that will be your New Year's meal.

By RxDawg

November 25, 2007 6:05 PM | Link to this

Hmm, out of all those options (besides the NC game) I'd love to play USC in the Rose Bowl. Out there, in their teratory…oh man that would be fun. I've been to Passedena (sp?) and I've seen the Rose bowl. Its a beautiful area and we would have a blast there dawg fans. Great job team, go dawgs.

By JD

November 25, 2007 6:14 PM | Link to this

I don't think UGA would play for the National Championship under any circumstances. I would think that if a two loss team went, it would be one that won its conference and they would jump UGA in the polls(LSU, USC or OU).

Grant, UGA's schedule this year wasn't exactly bruising. UGA played three teams ranked in this week's AP Poll. Somehow I'm sure that proves how tough the SEC is though.

By Prognostic8or

November 25, 2007 6:17 PM | Link to this

I don't want to play USC now no matter how hot the Dawgs are.

By Lee

November 25, 2007 6:21 PM | Link to this

I'm sorta leaning towards the Rose Bowl myself. Lot of tradition. Great venue. Be a fun game to watch, I'm a thinkin'.

Besides, I think the Redcoat Band would get an invite to the Rose Bowl Parade as well. Be good to give those kids a well deserved honor.

By GW

November 25, 2007 6:24 PM | Link to this

Unbelieavable, Expect the Rose to cut a deal for USC-Ohio State. Give credit to the SEC, ACC and Big 12 for playing championship games while the Big 11 and PAC 10 save themselves for a clear path to the NC. Ohio State has already won the state of Ohio championship, might as well squeeze them into the big picture. Give Richt credit for finding a way for his team not to play uptight. Games like last night would have been a nailbiter to the end otherwise.

By Beachdawg

November 25, 2007 6:24 PM | Link to this

There's a lot of "ifs and buts" in all of these scenarios. However, it seems to be a stretch to think that LSU, in the current BCS poll, would jump from 7th past the Dawgs. In that manner of thinking, several teams could jump UGA and Ohio St. because they're finished. I don't believe in that. It's like the old way of thinking, a starter can't lose his job because he gets hurt. UGA will do just fine in this bowl season. And there are a lot of folks out there that know that Ga. has a strong traveling contingent. So be it Pasadena, Tempe, or Miami, OR, (I almost forgot) New Orleans, the Red and Black will show up. Go Dawgs !!!!

By steve

November 25, 2007 6:26 PM | Link to this

I realize Georgia is playing well, right now. But, with both two losses, there is no way they should be ranked ahead of LSU or VA TECH, based on all of their schedules and how they lose.

By Prognostic8or

November 25, 2007 6:26 PM | Link to this

I don't want to play USC now no matter how hot the Dawgs are.

By SECCoachnDallas

November 25, 2007 6:28 PM | Link to this

Damn Good DAWGS!

By Sane Jane

November 25, 2007 6:37 PM | Link to this

Will dawg fans pull for Tenn to beat LSU to prevent a victorious conference champ from jumping idle Georgia?

Same for whoever's playing VT for the ACC…

By baloney

November 25, 2007 6:40 PM | Link to this

Based on Tony's past predictions I'm going to hold off making my travel plans until it is confirmed by someone that is actually in the know as to where the Dawgs will play. Tony has ….shall we say misled us the last few weeks. Plus I don't think he is even on the selection committee.

By GR

November 25, 2007 6:41 PM | Link to this

All the scenarios are great for Dawg fans…I don't expect WV to lose to 4-7 Pitt, so GA probably won't see New Orleans in January 2008. The most natural match-up would be SEC vs. ACC in Miami, which would be fun. Short of going to the NC, a great game would be Georgia against OK in the Fiesta. Still, it would be great to see the Dawgs in the Rose Bowl, since it's been more than 60 years since we last appeared there.

By Ray

November 25, 2007 6:45 PM | Link to this

In the immortal words of Vince Dooley…. "HOW BOUT DEM DAWGS!!!!!" EXXXCEELLENT WORKS GUYS!! Keep ya head on a swivel and lets win this one for the State of Georgia!!

By maddie

November 25, 2007 6:46 PM | Link to this

UGA and OSU HAVE to play each other, there is no other option, there just isn't! My cousin is Mikey Henderson, and I grew up "in the shadow of the shoe" as they say in Columbus. I have said for 5 years since Mikey started at UGA (of course he was red shirted his first year) that it would be awesome if they played each other in a game, especially the NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP!

Keep your fingers crossed!

By pj

November 25, 2007 6:47 PM | Link to this

So many things to be considered, but either way, I'm going to Disneyland! Is that close to Pasadena? I've never traveled to California…

By bill cason

November 25, 2007 6:48 PM | Link to this

I am proud of the DOGS no matter where they play in the post season. The are a young team with a lot of heart and a lot of pride. They are also a well coached team. Thanks for a great game TB. I am really looking forward to next year and SC.

By Steve

November 25, 2007 6:48 PM | Link to this

To all Tech fans. You must have the most pathetic fan base and pathetic stadium I have ever seen. It has been a few years since I was last at your high school stadium for a game. I can't believe how little yellow I saw at the game yesterday. The game was a good one but was so boring because the Tech fans are so quiet. Is it always like that? How does it feel to know you will never have a program like UGA?

By Mike in Montgomery

November 25, 2007 6:54 PM | Link to this

While it is nice to speculate on the possibility of meeting Ohio State in New Orleans for that beautiful Crystal Football, I think that anywhere the Dawgs end up is just as sweet. 6 games ago all of us were staring in disbelief at the dismantling of our team by Tennessee, and just wondering if the Dawgs would even win 6 or 7 games ― to come from that and be 10-2 and even have a sniff of the NC game is an amazing accomplishment

My hat is off to Mark Richt, mike Bobo, and Willie martinez for a great job. When I think of what this team has done and everyone we have coming back - THE SKY IS THE LIMIT NEXT YEAR.

I would not be shocked to see the Dawgs sitting at pre-season #1.

By Andy

November 25, 2007 6:54 PM | Link to this

I would love to see Georgia play USC in the Rose Bowl. Both teams are hot right now and it would be a great game. I don't want to see Georgia go to the Orange Bowl and play Virginia Tech again. Didn't Georgia play them in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl last year ? I'm a little sick of seeing Georgia play ACC teams in bowl games, so it would be a nice change for Georgia to play USC.

By Tony, did you take a hard hit this week

November 25, 2007 6:54 PM | Link to this

Tony YOU know better. GA in the National Championship game over the SEC winner…GET OVER IT, IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN, and it NEVER should. Otherwise, why have the SEC Championship game.

By Doug

November 25, 2007 6:59 PM | Link to this

Nice post Jim,

Guess we got lucky when we beat the Dawgs 35-14 in October in a game that wasn't that close.

By 2dawgpound

November 25, 2007 7:02 PM | Link to this

It doesnt matter if LSU wins or not, they cant jump the dawgs. The winner of the SECCG goes to the Sugar Bowl.

By Volman

November 25, 2007 7:05 PM | Link to this

Steve,

How is your Georiga State degree?

Secondly, if all you worry about in life is a college football program, then your fat a* self of yours has a serious problem that needs to get checked.

I don't mind Tech losing to Georgia..at all. Our institution is not based on having a great "footbawl" program. Yes, we have good teams, but will probably never be great.. Oh well, we won a national title in '90…When was UGA's last national title run?

Please do not try to bark at our stadium now. Bobby Dodd stadium is rich in tradition, and my grandfather was an All-American for the national title team back in the day.. Don't you sit back behind your keyboard make those asinine comments. You're a dolt….

Get a dictionary and look it up because I know your redneck a* does not know what that means.

By Mike

November 25, 2007 7:07 PM | Link to this

It doesn't matter what LSU does next week. If the SEC champion is not in the BCS championship game, they have to go to the Sugar Bowl. Pittsburg as no chance against WV. If Mizzou wins in the Big 12, it will be them and WV. OSU goes to the Rose. If Mizzou loses, then we have a shot at the Rose because OSU goes to the BCS Championship. So, we will probably play BC in the Orange or Oklahoma in the Fiesta.

By floater3

November 25, 2007 7:10 PM | Link to this

Hey, Dr mor if lsu wins they go to the sugar bowl dumb -a*

By jim

November 25, 2007 7:11 PM | Link to this

The Rose Bowl is a dream come true; the granddaddy of all Bowls! If we get picked for it we will have to bring our A++ game and play 250%. Three and outs and 6 punts like we played against tech will result in a worse whipping than UT gave us, and the whole world will see it. Matt Stafford has to be on target to open the running lanes for Brown and Moreno. The defense can not play soft or USC will pick them apart. This USC team is not the want-to-be football team coached by the Ol Ballcoach up the road, but a team will put up a lot of points and run us out of town on a rail in a heartbeat. Dawg nation do you think we are man enough to hang with these guys?

By boots

November 25, 2007 7:12 PM | Link to this

Doug, guess you shouldn't have lost three games… soon to be four. Can't see TN going to the BCS with four loses when a very hot UGA team (would you seriously want to play us this weekend?) will have 2 and be ranked #4 in the polls. TN goes to the Outback, maybe, on a good day. Citrus takes the Gators who killed TN. Maybe Peach for the Vols otherwise.

Would love to see the Dawgs in the Rose Bowl play USC. Maybe we can make up for the smack-down that California put on the Vols this year and avenge the SEC out west.

By gtfan

November 25, 2007 7:15 PM | Link to this

I don't see how any team can play for a national championship when they can't even win their conference??

By Matthew

November 25, 2007 7:16 PM | Link to this

Actually "Tony, did you take a hard hit this week", the BCS takes in an entire win-loss record… not just the division win-loss… so being the SEC Winner with three losses wouldn't move them above a 2 loss Georgia. You're a chump for even thinking it.

By Mike

November 25, 2007 7:16 PM | Link to this

I forgot to mention that Illinois has to be ranked at least 12th to be considered for the BCS, so it is very unlikely that they can go to the Rose. Also, as a Dawg fan, I want to congratulate UT and their fans. Ya'll could have folded the tent after the Cal, UF and Alabama games but didn't. You run the table and fought hard to pull out some great wins. Good luck next week against LSU. What division or conference was tougher top tp bottom than the SEC East this year?

By Beachdawg

November 25, 2007 7:17 PM |